Shots on target stats are some of the most important metrics in sports betting. We use them more than Paul Pogba changes his hairstyle, but there’s a knack to knowing how to interpret them and extract the maximum for your bets. In this guide, we will show you exactly how these numbers influence betting markets, predict goals and, ultimately, find value.
- 1 What Are Shots on Target Stats & Why Are They Relevant?
- 2 Understanding Shots on Target Stats in Football Analytics
- 3 Key Players & Positions for Shots on Target Stats
- 4 Best Shots on Target Betting Markets
- 5 Our Expert Shots on Target Betting Tips
- 6 ThePuntersPage Final Say
- 7 Shots on Target Stats FAQs
What Are Shots on Target Stats & Why Are They Relevant?
A shot on target (SoT) may seem self-explanatory, but there are a few nuances you need to know before you bet.
For it to be deemed “on target,” the ball must be heading into the net, if not for a save or a last-ditch block. Any that are (instantly) blocked, hit the woodwork or wouldn’t have reached the goal are classed as “off-target”.
It’s one of the best metrics for a goal threat indicator, or how likely it is that a team will score, to you and me. The more shots on target, the greater the chance of scoring. The Premier League averages around 8.5 per game, with one in three resulting in a goal.
Some would argue that it’s better to look at this than goals scored over a longer period of time, as it highlights a more potent attacking threat. Teams with higher conversion rates from their shots on target stats potentially means they are creating less, but those chances that are created are higher quality, thus leading to more goals.
How Do Shots on Target Stats Influence Betting Markets?
It’s not groundbreaking to suggest that the more shots a team has, the more likely they are to score, which means the more likely they are to win. In fact, that’s just plain obvious. But shot on target stats get interesting when we start to peel back the layers, like a football-sized onion.
Player markets are where they all begin. Most bookies will have markets to bet on the number of shots (both on and off target) a player has during a match. For example, Mo Salah to have 2+ shots on target.
We can then shift our focus away from individual payers and to team bets. Match totals for goals are directly linked to players scoring, so it makes sense that we target teams who have players with strong player shot on target stats.
Understanding Shots on Target Stats in Football Analytics
From an analytics perspective, we can link player shot on target predictions directly to success. Let’s take total shots versus on-target shots as an example.
If a team has a lot of shots but a low percentage is on target, even though they’re creating chances, the likelihood of them scoring is still low. Shooting accuracy in the Premier League in 2024/25 is around 34%, but if we look at Newcastle United as an example, they only average 30.7% SoT, but their goals per SoT is 0.38, which is the highest in the league, proving they are super clinical when on target.
To expand on this, we can look at the quality of shots. A perfect accompaniment to shots on target stats today is expected goals (xG). This is designed to give us a value to shots based on location and situation, meaning that a high xG typically results in, at least, a shot on target.
As it is always the case with football stats, context matters. For example, a team might fire in eight SoT, but six were when trailing 4-0, so the result was all but confirmed. We call this “inflation” or “stats padding”, meaning it paints that team in a better light even though they’ve been well and truly walloped.
Advanced Metrics: Expected Shots on Target Explained
To progress from xG, we can geek out even more for shots on target stats by looking at shot accuracy expectation. This tells us how often a player should get a shot away and hit the target based on hundreds of data points that boffins far clever than ourselves thankfully work out.
Liverpool has the highest number of shots per 90 this season, with 16.58, resulting in 5.81 shots on target. If they faced a team that leaks more than Old Trafford’s roof, 6+ xSoT wouldn’t be an unreasonable assumption. Conversely, if their opponents were tighter than Daniel Levy’s trouser pockets, the under bet would be the play.
Do Shots on Target Relate to Other Football Statistics?
The short answer is yes. But don’t worry, we’ll expand on that.
Goals have the most direct relationship. You need to hit the target to score; the more times you do this, the more chances you have of scoring. Liverpool’s shots on target stats are a great example, scoring the most goals in the 2024/25 season with 72 from the most SoT with 180.
It’s not an exact science, as some teams are more clinical than others. Brentford and Newcastle have 51 goals this campaign, with the Bees needing 138 (39%) shots for their return and the Magpies 126 (30.8%).
Key Players & Positions for Shots on Target Stats
Certain players and positions will dominate football shots on target stats. Forwards, wide players and creative midfielders play higher up the pitch, creating more opportunities in front of the goal. Let’s dig a little deeper into this.
Tactical Roles Contributing to Shots on Target Stats
Target man strikers are somewhat of a dying breed in the modern game, but they still top the charts for shots on target stats in the Premier League. It’s not uncommon for strikers to have 3+ SoT per game, as teams are set up to feed them chances at any given opportunity. The likes of Alexander Isak (32) and Erling Haaland (54) are probably the best two current examples of this, sitting first and fourth in the player shots on target stats per game.
Modern wingers are next. Salah, Mbappe, Vinicius Jr., Saka. Basically, the superstars of today's game are wingers… or wide forwards for the old-school crew out there. They’re no longer confined to the touchline and have the creative freedom to cut back in and get a shot away, given most are inverted, with their stronger foot being the opposite to the flank they play on.
Mo Salah is a great example to look at. He’s about to break the goal involvement record in the Premier League and is second for shots on target stats, with 45, averaging 3.24 per 90 as a wide forward/winger.
How to Identify Shots on Target Trends?
The best way to find shots on target predictions is to look at trends and streaks. Short vs long-term averages is a good place to start. Try to find players in form over five to eight games instead of season-long averages. For example, Bournemouth’s Evanilson is averaging 1.41 SoT per 90 over the season, but for his last five games, he is at 1.78, which we would describe as trending.
Another area to look at is opponent-specific trends. Team shot on target stats will show you those that consistently allow more attempts on goal. Brentford are a good team to study for this, as they’re going OK this season in 12th but have conceded the second most SoT in the league, with 173, only beaten by Southampton's dismal 200.
For both examples, we’re moving away from general stats to targeted data points that will yield more in the way of value betting.
Home vs Away Trends in Shots on Target Stats
Home advantage is a big deal in football betting. Almost every Premier League team creates more shots on target at home than they do away. To put this into context, Man City’s shot on target stats show they average 6.1 at home and 4.3 away.
There are, of course, outliers in this, but not necessarily where you might expect. Liverpool is bucking the trend, albeit only just. They create more shots on target away (6.4) than at Anfield (6.0). This is likely due to their style of play, which favours high-tempo, counter-attacking football. At home, teams sit back, making it harder to execute their preferred gameplan, but opponents are more attacking away from home, meaning the counterattack is very much on.
Best Shots on Target Betting Markets
With a surge in football shots on target stats, the bookies have created a range of betting markets that link to it. A lot of these markets are covered in ThePuntersPage stats hub, so if you need a little help, which is why we’re here, then use this with the markets below.
This market combines the total number of shots on target from both teams. The bookies will present this as an over/under line; all you need to do is choose based on the line. For example, if the bet is over 8.5 SoT, you need nine or more for the bet to win.
This is a similar market to betting on team total goals, but instead, you’re betting on shots. For example, this might be Brighton shots on target over 5.5, and for the bet to win, you need them to have six or more, and any of their players can contribute.
Probably the most popular market: bet on the number of shots from a player on either team. For example, if Cole Palmer’s shots on target stats average 2.8 per game, then betting on the over 1.5 SoT will likely make a lot of sense here.
Some bookies offer markets like Both Teams 3+ Shots on Target. This is best for open games where you’ve two attacking teams but struggle defensively. Bournemouth vs Brentford would be the dream matchup here, as both take plenty of shots and concede more than Leicester City on Monday Night Football.
Key Factors Impacting Shots on Target Betting
Perhaps the biggest factor to look at is the quality of defence. Most teams have competent attacking players who, given the chance, can get a shot away, but this is increased when they come up against teams who struggle defensively.
Playing style is next. Teams who control games with high possession stats correlate with high shots on target stats. Liverpool, Man City, Chelsea and Tottenham have the highest average passes in the league. The four of them also feature in the top five for shots on target. Case in point.
Finally, look for individual player absences and form. These types of football stats can be heavily offset by one or two players in a team. Erling Haaland’s 54 SoT comprise almost a third of Man City’s total. So, if he’s not playing or is out of form, it would make sense that they will, on average, have fewer SoT.
How to Spot Value Bets Using Shots on Target Stats
We’re all about value betting at TPP. Finding that edge over the bookies is what separates the men from the boys and, ultimately, how we can consistently make a profit from our betting tips. Here’s the process we use for spotting value using shot on target stats.
Our Expert Shots on Target Betting Tips
OK, so you want to know how we create our betting tips using shots on target stats. Well, there are no secrets here, and below, you’ll see a range of what we think are key aspects to look at, which will significantly improve your betting strategy.
Don’t Miss Any Match Stats
First off, use our brilliant (even if we do say so ourselves) stats API to create your shot-on-target predictions. The table’s super easy to use, and you can flick between player or team stats, depending on what you want to bet on.
You can then choose between any major leagues and European competitions and even search for archived stats from as far back as the 2020/21 season. We’ve given you the shots on target and total shots, plus goals scored for the players, and for teams, you can see totals and conversion rates. It’s everything you need, to be honest.
Create Context for Stats
Shots on target stats are as powerful as a Roberto Carlos thunderstrike. But you need to apply context and consider variables as to why the numbers are what they are.
PSG have had the most SoT of any team across Europe this season with 234 from 28 games, at an average of 8.36. That’s a lot. But the reality is that the overall standard in Ligue 1 isn’t that great, so the numbers, while high, aren’t all that impressive.
If they were in the Champions League playing against the likes of Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and Manchester City, three teams who are solid at the back, the number of chances they create will lessen, meaning their average of 8.36 will be met less often. We must dig deeper than a season-long average to apply context to the numbers.
Take Advantage of Sub On/Off Promotions
We’re specifically linking this to players' markets, but a highly popular promotion across the best online bookies is sub on/off. This is where if you’ve picked a player to have a certain number of shots in the game, when that player gets substituted and the markets have not already been settled, then the substitute will fill in for the remainder of the bet.
For example, let’s assume you’ve backed Cole Palmer to have over 2.5 SoT in a game. It gets to 60 minutes, and he’s notched one SoT and gets subbed for Pedro Neto. He now takes up the remainder of the bet, and if Neto gets two or more SoT, then you’re bet will win.
This isn’t something you need to opt in for, and it’s free, creating huge value by keeping bets alive for longer.
ThePuntersPage Final Say
The explosion of shots on target stats has been a game changer in the betting world. The data we have at our disposal now is incredible, and we can link this to multiple betting markets, all in the pursuit of value. You must ensure you put any stats or figures into context and then compare the numbers with the odds. By understanding how those numbers work and what drives them, you can pinpoint betting opportunities and increase confidence in your picks.
Shots on Target Stats FAQs
This is data that shows how many shots on target a player or team has had. A shot on target is defined as one that, assuming not saved or blocked, would have led to a goal. Stats can show this as whole numbers, percentages and per 90.
Yes, you can bet directly on a team or individual players' number of shots on target. Alternatively, there are match totals (over/under), team totals (over/under), both teams to have X shots on target, first/last shot on target and specials linked to bet builders.
Shots on target per 90 showcase the contributions of a player based on the time they were on the pitch. For example, if a player has 10 shots on target in five games but has only played 100 minutes across them all, their output would be higher than simply suggesting 10 in five, which could be up to 450 minutes.
The most common is goals, which includes players to score, match result, total team goals and countless others. Ultimately, anything linked to a team scoring can be directly influenced by the number of shots on target.