With key mid-week wins, Man City, Newcastle United and Aston Villa are heating up the race for the Premier League’s Champion League top five spots, creating a split between the bookies and analysts.
As Liverpool has a12 point lead at the top, the ongoing race for the Champions League spots offers the most exciting betting opportunities in the Premier League run in.
While the bookies are predicting that Nottingham Forest, Man City and Chelsea will complete the top 5 behind Liverpool and Arsenal, the analysts have a different view, predicting that Newcastle will grab the fifth spot, with Chelsea and Aston Villa missing out.
However, in terms of value, Aston Villa, despite being only two points off fifth place, offer more attractive odds. A £10 bet on Villa, fresh from a 3-0 win away at Brighton, to finish in the Top 5 at odds of 9/2 with bet365 could bring you a profit of £45.
Bookies Back City and Chelsea to Secure Top 5
Manchester City, Aston Villa and Newcastle United all won on Wednesday, but despite defeats for Brighton and Bournemouth, there are still only seven points separating fourth-placed City from the Cherries in 10th. The trio of wins puts pressure on Chelsea ahead of their clash with Tottenham.
Nottingham Forest’s win over Manchester United has given them a strong foothold in the Champions League spots, while the bookies are also backing City and Chelsea to complete the top 5, with bet365 offering the following odds:
| Team | Bookmaker | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | bet365 | 1/1000 |
| Nottingham Forest | bet365 | 1/6 |
| Manchester City | bet365 | 1/5 |
| Chelsea | bet365 | 4/7 |
| Newcastle United | bet365 | 4/6 |
| Aston Villa | bet365 | 9/2 |
| Bournemouth | bet365 | 33/1 |
| Fulham | bet365 | 50/1 |
City, who look like they will be without Erling Haaland for the rest of the Premier League campaign, eased past Leicester City and look like they will do enough to finish in the top 5.
Newcastle looks like an interesting bet at 4/6 with bet365. Many of the bookies are predicting them to just miss out, however, they have a game in hand over their rivals after this round of fixtures and five of their nine matches are at St James’ Park.
Although Villa is back in seventh, bet365’s price of 9/2 offers great value. Unai Emery’s side face Forest, Newcastle and City in the run-in so have the chance to take points from their rivals.
Emery appears to have got Marcus Rashford firing, and a strong finish to the season could see them in the Champions League again next season. However, Villa also has the little matter of a Champions League semi-final against PSG, which could stretch their squad.
Opta Predict Top 5 for Forest, City and Toon
Analysts Opta, have a slightly different take to the bookies. Their predicted table has Newcastle finishing 5th behind Forest and City, with Chelsea and Villa to miss out in 6th and 7th respectively.
Opta are giving Forest a 92.7% chance of finishing in the top 5, compared to odds of 1/6 at bet365, which is 85.7% probability.