A £5 bet on Kane scoring and England winning in their first match since November 2024 could return £17.50 at bet365, that’s brilliant value!
Considering Harry Kane is averaging 0.875 goals per game for Bayern, and that England have never lost to Albania, the 2.5/1 odds with an implied value of 28.6% could be significantly undervalued by the bookies, by as much as two or three times.
Plus, they have just come off making it to the Euro finals, their last game was a 5-0 masterclass against Ireland, and get this, England have scored in every one of their last ten games.
On top of that, this is the debut of new boss Thomas Tuchel and there’s no doubt that he’ll want a show of strength to usher in a new era.
Experimentation at this formative stage seems unlikely and that means the ever-reliable Harry Kane is expected to be at the forefront of their attacking strategy, and as we’ve seen at Bayern, that usually means goals galore.
It’s the perfect opportunity for him to test out set-pieces and get back into the rhythm as England captain, and against a team like Albania, as we saw against Ireland and Finland in the UEFA Nations League, we believe he’ll be successful.
That’s not to downplay Albania’s talents, they showed fight against Italy and Croatia at the Euros and have some decent firepower in Armando Broja and Ray Manaj.
But the facts are, Albania has never beaten any of the top 10 in FIFA’s world rankings, have won just two of their last nine games, and their last encounter with England saw them hammered 5-0, including a hat-trick by, you guessed it, Harry Kane.
In other words, it would be a huge upset for them to win here, and nearly impossible if Kane scores.
So, to us, the risk with this bet is almost entirely on Kane to score, which on its own has 4/6 odds, an implied probability of 60%.
That means a fiver would return £10.
So, the extra 31.4% in profit (£7.50 extra!) for England winning comes with minimal added risk in our view and is a superb value bet.
