At 13/2 odds (13.3% implied probability) from bet365, we think the bookies may have underestimated Burnley’s chances of winning the Championship by as much as four times.
Burnley are currently in third place in the Championship with 78 points, just two points behind leaders Leeds United, who have 80 points, with eight games left in the season.
| Position | Team | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Leeds United | 80 |
| 2. | Sheffield United | 80 |
| 3. | Burnley | 78 |
That’s plenty of opportunity for The Clarets to climb the ranks and secure not just Premier League promotion, but the Championship title as well.
But with 13/2 odds on a Burnley win, the bookies clearly disagree, and that’s where we spot a value bet.
Burnley’s Recent Form Surpasses Top Rivals
We see no logical justification for oddsmakers having Burnley rated so far below Leeds United, firm favourites at 1/3 (75% implied probability).
Burnley have won four of their last six games, matching both Sheffield United and Leeds United, each win coming with a clean sheet.
No surprise considering The Clarets have only conceded 11 goals this season.
Leeds United? 25 goals conceded.
In other words, Burnley have become defensive powerhouses, with standout centre-back Maxime Esteve and top goalkeeper James Trafford, who many believe could be the future replacement for Pickford in Tuchel’s England squad.
And they're hardly dull in the tooth compared to their top rivals.
Burnley have comfortably beaten Sheffield United in their last three matchups (5-0, 4-1, and 2-0) and also took three points from Leeds in September (1-0).
Why are Burnley’s odds 13/2 again? In our opinion, the bookies have fallen for the hype and haven’t been paying attention to the stats.
We’d place Burnley as joint favourites with Leeds, with Sheffield United as the outside contender. This means their true probability of winning is likely around 40-45%, considering it's a three-horse race.
It could very well be the best value outright bet in the Championship.
Squeeze More From Your Bet with the Finest UK Welcome Offers
We’d back this even without the promotional boost, but with so many great offers around, why not take advantage?
Most of the top UK free bets and welcome offers will apply to long-odds football markets, so you can take your pick from the best deals around.
For example, bet365’s sign-up offer gives new customers £30 in free bets when they deposit and stake £10 on any sports markets with odds of 1/5 or greater.
You could make Burnley to win the Championship your qualifying bet or back it with your free bet.
A tenner at 13/2 odds would return a tidy £75, that’s £65 in profit even using this promo.
Plus, you'd still have free bets left to play with – now that’s a cracking deal!
