Bookies have Bournemouth down as clear favourites, but recent form suggests these two Premier League heavyweights could go blow for blow. In fact, we reckon the 1/3 (25% implied probability) odds offered by the likes of bet365 on a draw are an absolute steal right now.
Put simply, we think the bookies have had their heads turned by United’s position near the bottom of the table and aren’t clocking how evenly matched these two actually are right now.
We reckon the bookies have got a bit carried away here. Bournemouth are priced at 4/6 (60% implied probability), but their recent form doesn’t exactly back that up. Right now, they’re not playing like a side that should be odds-on in a fixture like this.
Why We Think Bournemouth vs Manchester United is Headed to a Photo Finish
Make no mistake, the Red Devils have had a shocker this season. A leaky defence, poor management and a long list of injuries have all played their part in what’s been their worst run in 30 years, and you’d be hard-pressed to say it wasn’t deserved.
On the flip side, Bournemouth have been flying high. Their attack, led by the likes of Semenyo, Evanilson and Kluivert, has been sharp and accurate, while Kepa’s presence in goal has helped shore up their defence. It’s been their best ever Premier League campaign.
So, with one side making history for all the right reasons and the other for all the wrong ones, why aren’t we backing Bournemouth?
Simple. Recent form tells a different story. Bournemouth have only managed two wins in their last seven, and three of those teams are lower in the league than Manchester United (Wolves, West Ham and Ipswich). Whether it’s fatigue or other teams figuring them out, they’ve lost some of that early-season bite.
And United? Well, it’s not been pretty, but they’ve still managed three wins from their last ten, including a gutsy Europa League result against Lyon and they even managed to peel a point away from Man City.
Truth is, both sides have looked a bit toothless. But they’ve also shown just enough grit to drag a fair few games to a draw: two each in their last five.
Even just looking at that alone, you’d be estimating draw odds at around 40%. Add in the fact both teams are struggling to finish matches strong, and we reckon a draw is the most likely result here. We’d put it closer to 50–60%, meaning the bookies might be miles off on this one, possibly undervaluing it by more than half.
Bet on a Bournemouth-Man Utd Draw and Get Three More Goes with bet365
You know what’s brilliant about 3/1 odds?
Most bookies set the minimum odds for their best free bets and promos at around evens or just under. That means when you back something like a draw between Manchester United and Bournemouth, you’re not only getting decent value but also unlocking access to a treasure trove of top-tier offers from the best UK bookmakers.
And when it comes to free bet promos, it doesn’t get much better than the “Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets” offer from bet365. All you’ve got to do is sign up, deposit a fiver or a tenner, and place a bet at odds of 1/5 or higher within 30 days. Do that and you’ll get three times your stake back in free bets to use across a huge range of sports. Just keep in mind that Tote, Colossus, Lotto, and Fantasy bets are off the table.
That’s four chances to land a win from one single bet, and we already thought this market was packed with value.
