The quarterfinal stages are upon us, and our Champions League predictions are live, featuring a tasty-looking 18/1 acca with bet365.
As we hit the business end of the tournament, games are becoming all that more competitive, so we’ve spent a little more time than usual to bring you the best value bet from each.
It’s best priced right now with bet365, where a £10 bet returns £182.10.
| Match | Market | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal vs. Real Madrid | Over 1.5 Team Cards – Madrid | 4/6 |
| Bayern Munich vs. Inter Milan | Bayern -2 Corner Handicap | 21/20 |
| Barcelona v Dortmund | Guirassy Over 1.5 Shots on Target | 11/4 |
| PSG vs. Aston Villa | Martinez Over 3.5 Saves | 1/2 |
Bet #1: Real Madrid – Over 1.5 Team Cards at 4/6
The 2024/25 campaign has been far from smooth sailing for Los Blancos.
Their route to the Champions League quarter-finals was marred with three surprise defeats in the new league format before having to overcome an equally underfiring Manchester City in the knockout phase.
With the stars they have at their disposal, you’d expect them to top many of the attacking charts, but in fact, their lack of dominance has required a more hard-nosed approach.
Madrid’s tally of 30 yellow cards is the most in the competition, averaging 2.5 per game.
Vinicius Junior (5), Lucas Vazquez (4) and Jude Bellingham (3) all make the top 12 for most bookings, each creating plausible arguments for the individual card market.
The return of Bukayo Saka from injury to the Arsenal lineup will cause Real Madrid more headaches at the back.
Odds for the match result suggest the bookies don’t know which way this one will swing, but the over 1.5 cards at odds of 4/6 looks like a solid bet, given their disciplinary record, especially away from home.
Bet #2: Bayern Munich – Corner Handicap -2 at 21/20
Bayern vs. Inter is one of the most interesting games in our Champions League predictions. They are chalk and cheese when it comes to style, which can make it hard to find value.
The bookies agree, with Bayern only slightly worse than even money at 19/20 to win with bet365 and Inter 27/10, respectively.
Standout stats come from corner betting. Bayern have racked up the most in the competition so far (94), ten more than the next best PSG, at an average of 7.83 per game.
Inter are at the other end of the spectrum, sitting 31st out of 36 teams with just 29 corners at an average of 2.90 per game – a difference of 4.93 corners per game between the two teams.
Given that Bayern are 21/20 to have two or more corners than Inter, and considering the outlying numbers, it’s one of the best bets of the round, making it a strong addition to the acca.
Bet #3: Serhou Guirassy Over 1.5 Shots on Target at 11/4
Arguably, the tie of the round takes place at the Nou Camp on Wednesday evening.
The pair are the only teams in the quarter-finals to have gone head to head in the earlier rounds, so there’s a little bit of an idea of what’s to come.
Barcelona’s 3-2 victory over Dortmund was a statement win. Not many go to battle with the Yellow Wall and come out victorious.
The bookies are expecting more goals, and it’s tough to find value for any over/under team goal markets.
As a result, we’ve shifted our attention to the players and, more specifically, to Dortmund’s Serhou Guirassy.
The Guinean is second on the top scorer's list with 11 goals plus three assists. He’s averaging 2.1 shots on target per game and struck two from five in the last meeting between the teams.
Barcelona’s adventurous style of play will mean that Dortmund will have chances throughout, and Serhou will be the focal point of those attacks.
A price of 11/4 looks like a good bet if you take his numbers at face value, but given the opposition and the form he’s been in throughout this season's Champions League, 11/4 looks huge.
Bet #4: Emiliano Martinez Over 3.5 Saves at 1/2
Villa has a real task on their hands if they are to get anything from the Parc des Princes against PSG.
The Parisiens are 10/3 favourites to win the tournament and are the in-form team as we approach the quarter-final stage.
If Villa are to progress, they will need the help of their World Cup-winning goalkeeper, Emiliano Martínez.
The Argentinian is going up against one of the best forward lines in the league, ranking third for expected goals (26.7), second for shots on target per match (7.0), and second for big chances created (55).
But the kicker is that they are also top of the big chances missed chart, with 36 from their 12 games so far. This is where the value could lie. Martinez averages 3.6 saves per match and doesn’t need to outperform this by much to romp home with over 3.5 saves.
Odds of 1/2 are a hair shorter than we’d like, but with PSG strong odds-on to win and the bookies expecting goals from both teams, it’s the bet that makes the most sense.