Erling Haaland’s ankle injury, sustained in Sunday’s FA Cup quarter-final win against Bournemouth, is set to keep him out for up to seven weeks. However, bookmakers are holding firm, keeping City odds-on at 8/11 with BetVictor to secure a top-four finish this season.
The Norwegian went down following a heavy challenge from Lewis Cook, after earlier scoring to seal a spot in the semi-final.
Pep Guardiola confirmed the injury in Tuesday’s press conference, citing “between five to seven weeks” for a return, and was “hopeful” he will be back in time for the Club World Cup.
Bookies Maintain City’s Top 4 Hopes
With 24 goal involvements in 28 games, the loss of Haaland’s goal-scoring prowess will be a blow to City as they attempt to salvage an already dismal 2024/25 campaign.
With early exits from the Champions League and League Cup and with no chance of catching Liverpool in the title race, all focus is on their semi-final clash with Nottingham Forest and their push for UCL qualification.
But it’s not all doom and gloom in Manchester.
The Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR), which uses an algorithm to generate a rank for the perceived difficulty of a team’s opponent, has them with the second-easiest run-in.
| Team | Position | Total FDR | Ave. FDR per match |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | 3 | 24 | 2.67 |
| Man City | 5 | 24 | 2.67 |
| Newcastle | 6 | 28 | 2.80 |
| Liverpool | 1 | 26 | 2.89 |
| Arsenal | 2 | 26 | 2.89 |
| Brighton | 7 | 26 | 2.89 |
| Aston Villa | 9 | 27 | 3.0 |
| Chelsea | 4 | 29 | 3.22 |
| Fulham | 8 | 30 | 3.33 |
Only fellow Top 4 chasers Nottingham Forest have a lower FDR. More importantly, rivals Newcastle United and Chelsea face a more challenging set of fixtures, further backing the notion that the 8/11 price looks a strong value bet.
Who Will Replace Haaland?
A team without Erling Haaland is undoubtedly weaker than one with him.
However, City have managed without in the past, with great success. He missed 12 games in 2023/24, during which his team won 11, drew one, and lost none.
Without any like-for-like replacement, Guardiola will likely have to re-jig the system. New signing Omar Marmoush has scored four goals in seven games this season and could be moved into a more central role as cover.
Phil Foden has also played a central, albeit slightly deeper false-9 in Haaland’s absence, so there is room to manoeuvre.
Given Manchester City’s favourable run and the fact that such a key player has made little to no difference in the 8/11 odds on offer from BetVictor, this still appears to be an extremely strong value bet, all things considered.