A deal is close for Liverpool full-back Trent Alexander-Arnold to join Spanish giants Real Madrid in the summer.
A transfer saga that has dragged on for the last six months appears to be coming to an end, but will the news have an impact on derailing an almost insurmountable 12-point gap? With a 1/33 best price with BetVictor, it certainly looks shorter than it should.
Liverpool’s form has wobbled of late. Elimination in the last 16 of the Champions League to PSG was sharply followed by a Carabao Cup Final loss to Newcastle United, who outworked, outfought and outplayed The Reds.
Rumours circulated on social media in January about dressing-room bust-ups between Alexander-Arnold and captain van Dijk, which at the time were reported to be about his contract situation – or lack thereof.
Following the latest reports, bookmakers have stopped taking bets on the full-back's next club, a sure-fire sign that a contract has been agreed upon or, at worst, is very close, bringing an abrupt end to a nine-year career on Merseyside.
Trent in Numbers
Alexander-Arnold has redefined the full-back role. He’s Liverpool’s main playmaker, which is incredible given his position.
Since securing a starting position in 2018, he has created 514 chances, 22% higher than any other defender—a number only surpassed by Manchester City’s Kevin De Bruyne (705).
| Trent’s Creative Record Since 2018 | Total | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Chances created | 488 | 3rd |
| Chances created from open play | 299 | 6th |
| Chances created from set plays | 188 | 3rd |
| Through-balls | 88 | 7th |
| Assists | 63 | 3rd |
| Expected assists | 58.67 | 1st |
| Passes into opposition box | 2593 | 1st |
Another area of concern for Liverpool is his partnership with the league's top scorer, Mohamed Salah. Following his 2017 debut, he has created 100 chances for the “Egyptian King”, 49 more than any other active player on the team.
Liverpool fans will be heartened by the fact that his understudy, Connor Bradley, appears to be a fine young talent. However, the reality is that the chances created in games will almost certainly be reduced, as he averages less than half the expected assists.
Can Liverpool Really Throw It All Away Now?
At 1/33, the bookies still believe the league is wrapped up, but it’ll only take a couple of bad results over the next few games to throw a massive North London spanner into the works.
Dressing room tensions could continue to be an issue given that contracts for Virgil van Dijk and Mo Salah still haven’t been sorted, with the latter being uncharacteristically vocal about lack of progress, suggesting more frustration behind the scenes.
Liverpool would have to do what no other team has done – lose a 12-point lead with 9 games remaining. But there’s no denying that it feels like there’s been a shift, both on and off-field.
Are Liverpool strong favourites? Of course. But at 1/33 (97.1% implied probability), it’s too short, so there’s no value.
Arsenal (priced at 20/1 with Ladbrokes) are the only alternative. They have a lot of ground to make up, but they still have Liverpool to play on May 10th, which creates a possible six-point swing.
Their form is solid, if not spectacular, with one win, two draws, and one loss (the only loss since November) in their last four games.
It’s now or never for The Gunners. The next five games are against teams from the bottom half of the table, which they will be strong favourites for and are must-wins, to say the least.
They need help from Liverpool, but it’s not out of the question to see them win the next five and keep their Premier League hopes alive, going into what could be a title decider at Anfield.
With the news of Trent’s impending move to Real Madrid, the lack of movement around contracts for key players, exits from two major cups within the space of a week and fans growing frustration at the lack of investment, this could be a record-breaking season for Liverpool still, but for all the wrong reasons.
