The Premier League is the most likely league to get an extra, 5th, spot for next year’s Champions League. Which team will reach that hallowed turf? Here’s what the bookies think.
The battle for the Premier League’s extra Champions League spot is heating up, with just four points separating the 5th and 10th teams. This has made the betting markets tighter than ever, creating unique odds opportunities.
According to bet365, Man City is a firm favourite at 1 /4 followed by Newcastle with odds at 4 /5 and Brighton at 9 /2.
With the Premier League most likely to get an extra 5th spot for next year’s Champions League, which team will play on that hallowed turf? And which one is the clear favourite with the bookies?
The bookies are pretty consistent in their odds, and bet365 is offering the following odds on teams to finish in the top 5: (Excluding Liverpool and Arsenal since there aren't any markets available.)
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Man City | 1/4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 7/25 |
| Chelsea | 1/2 |
| Newcastle | 4/5 |
| Brighton | 9/2 |
| Aston Villa | 9/1 |
| Bournemouth | 12/1 |
The odds are close, but there is some great value. Firstly, the teams in 3rd and 4th – Nottingham Forest and Chelsea have great odds, which are well worth a punt on.
Man City’s draw with Brighton at the weekend has closed the gap, keeping them in fifth place. Their final run in includes Man United, Fulham, Aston Villa and several bottom-half teams. , A loss against Aston Villa on the 25th of May could throw a spanner in the works.
Newcastle in 6th is also a good shout. They have a game in hand which would see them leapfrog into 4th if they win. They have some tough games though, including Arsenal, Chelsea, Brighton and Aston Villa.
Aston Villa, though least likely from the lot, have a huge opportunity as they have direct matches against City, Newcastle, Fulham, Brighton, and Nottingham Forest. The huge ties could see them get Champions League football again if they win them.
If you wanted to place a few safer bets, Nottingham Forest and Newcastle will probably provide the most value. If you’ve got the bottle, an Aston Villa top 5 finish is on the cards, but only if they can win their crucial ties.
If you’re a stats freak, and love a bit of xG, the xPts for the Premier League so far put Bournemouth and Fulham in the top 5.
Can they be considered top 5 contenders? It’s too unlikely to be worth a punt. Bournemouth are 12/1, which isn’t too far off, but they’re not at the level of the rest of the contenders. Fulham’s odds are 33/1. Miles off.
The Premier League are almost guaranteed a 5th UCL spot. UEFA awards the two teams with the highest coefficient each year an extra spot.
League coefficients are awarded based on how well teams from each country perform in European competitions. Each win is worth 2 points and a draw is worth 1. England has the highest right now and is guaranteed a spot as long as one of the English teams earns a draw in Europe.
England have 24.250 points. Third-placed Italy can only get a maximum of 24.4 points since most Serie A teams have already been eliminated. So, any result in Europe will guarantee the 5th UCL spot for the Premier League.