With tips, markets and a deep dive into everything about offside stats, your betting arsenal will be massive. It’s a great metric to bet on and to use when wagering on many related markets.
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Unfortunately, our offsides stats table is no longer available. We encourage you to visit our football stats page, where you can explore our wide range of available stat tables.
- 1 What Are Football Offside Stats & Why Are They Relevant?
- 2 Understanding Football Offside Stats in Football Analytics
- 3 Key Players & Positions for Football Offside Stats
- 4 Best Football Offside Betting Markets
- 5 Our Expert Football Offside Betting Tips
- 6 Don’t Miss Any Match Stats
- 7 ThePuntersPage Final Say
- 8 Offside Stats FAQs
What Are Football Offside Stats & Why Are They Relevant?
Football offside stats collect the number of times a player – or team – are caught breaking the offside rule. Thanks to VAR, it’s become one of the most controversial rules with increasingly finer margins and seemingly more wrong calls.
There are several ways to view offside stats. Team and individual player stats are the simplest way, but you can also view these per 90 minutes, or average offsides per game, which can be ideal for betting.
If you’re looking for direct markets for offsides stats, the main one that you’ll find is related to over/under betting on team or match offsides. Stats will show you if there are players or teams that are more likely to be caught offside than others. Any match with Moise Kean in it is a good shout.
Other than that, when betting on goal scorer or shot markets, you may want to avoid teams with many offsides, as they’re more likely to waste attacking movements without contributing to these metrics.
How Do Football Offside Stats Influence Betting Markets?
Offside betting markets are tough to find, but offside stats can prove useful for a few other related markets.
The main one is over/under offsides, which could be for a match or an individual team. Of course, players and clubs who have frequent offsides will likely continue to do so due to their playing style. Analysing a Premier League team offside stats will show this consistency.
Many markets related to attacking metrics can also be linked to offsides stats. These include goals, shots and shots on target. Players frequently caught offside will be a bad choice for these markets. For example, Darwin Nunez offside stats for last season were off the charts, therefore any other stats were sorely lacking because of it.
Another example is Fiorentina, being 5th in goals scored, but 12th in total shots. Mainly because Moise Kean is very clinical, but is often caught offside, so a potential shot isn’t registered. If he has 5 chances in a game, scores 1 and is offside for 3, his total shots only reach 2.
Understanding Football Offside Stats in Football Analytics
Offside stats can reveal a lot about a team. It normally indicates a style of play or the type of players composing it. Offsides tend to come from teams that attack on counters or rely on fast strikers and through balls.
Thus, teams that opt for a defensive playing style and aim to attack on the counter are more likely to be caught offside. Everton, Nottingham Forest and Leicester City all have offside stats in the Premier League that show this.
The same is true if they have a lone striker aiming to make runs using his pace. We see this with Arsenal’s Kai Havertz and Chelsea’s Nicolas Jackson's offside stats, which are quite high comparing to their team’s average offsides per game.
Do Football Offsides Relate to Other Football Statistics?
Yes, many stats can link together, and it’s a great way to create predictions and possible betting opportunities.
Looking at this season’s Premier League offside stats, 7 of the top 10 players with the most offsides play for the 7 teams with the least possession. Mainly due to low block defending and counters.
We also saw an interesting trend with expected goals (xG). Players with the most offsides, playing with the “worst” clubs in the division, all underperformed their xG values. In this regard, Vardy, Calvert-Lewin and Kudus are the biggest perpetrators.
Key Players & Positions for Football Offside Stats
Player offside stats are a key metric when discussing form. Of course, most of the time there’s a reason behind these offsides, and we’re going to delve into the position and player style that are most affected.
Tactical Roles Contributing to Football Offside Stats
Attacking players are obviously responsible for the vast majority of offsides. Lone strikers, or wingers relying on their pace, make up a large part of the statistic.
A team that prioritises attacking down the middle, and playing direct, will inevitably get more offsides. Forward passes like that, especially against well-organised defences, end up with the striker being caught offside.
On the flip side, teams with attacking flanks or dominating possession, without the need to play directly, will get fewer offsides. Liverpool offside stats under Arne Slot reflect this when compared to Klopp’s.
How to Identify Football Offside Trends?
Football offsides stats are surprisingly constant when it comes to trends. Jamie Vardy has been in the Premier League offside stats top 10 every year since 2016, topping the table 3 times.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin has finished in the top 5 of the last three seasons, and Chris Wood has also been in the top 10 in 6 of the last 8 seasons, topping the charts twice.
Strikers who make up most of the goals will always be in these lists, especially if they play for a weaker team.
Home vs Away Trends in Football Offside Stats
It’s almost impossible to find accurate data regarding home and away offside stats. In theory, teams playing at home are more likely to be caught offside, as they aim to attack more, even when faced with better opposition or less possession.
Best Football Offside Betting Markets
Since it’s such a specialised stat, there’s only a handful of markets where you can find odds on offsides and very few bookies offer it. Bet365 was the first – and still one of the only – bookie(s) to offer it consistently for the Premier League.
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Match offsides – this is an over / under market where you can bet on the number of offside you think will happen in a match.
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Team offsides – Another over / under market that lets you bet on the number of offsides a single team will have in a match.
Key Factors Impacting Football Offside Betting
Since offside betting is such a niche market, there’s not too much to go off. But considering these factors could greatly improve your success.
Watch for players who are consistently being called offside. If Vardy isn’t playing in a match, a punt on Leicester might not be worth it, unless it’s an under.
Teams that employ a high press are more likely to catch opponents offside, giving them little room to make forward runs. Teams that play direct will also be caught offside more often, as they try to break the opponent's defence quickly.
The match matters. If a team that is caught offside often plays against a much stronger side, they might not manage to create many attacks. Conversely, if they’re playing against a weaker side, they’ll have more opportunities to attack, and, therefore, to be caught offside.
Finding out which leagues feature the most offsides can be a great way to spot value. For example, the average offsides per game in the Premier League is much higher than the Serie A, due to the generally more defensive style of the Italian League.
How to Spot Value Bets Using Football Offside Stats
Spotting value bets is a form of art, and for offside stats, there are a few things you need to do:
Our Expert Football Offside Betting Tips
When it comes to betting on offsides, many variables could affect your judgement. We believe it’s important to consider these:
Find the players first
The best way to bet on offsides is to find out which players are caught on that position most often. This might have to do with the team’s playing style and won’t change drastically throughout a season.
Teams with several offside merchants
If a team has more than one player that is frequently caught offside, they are likely to continue the trend. Since markets are more linked with team performance, not individual, more players getting called offside works in your favour.
Playing style
Find teams that have a playing style often leading to offside plays. Teams that play with high defensive lines or those that play direct football. A match between two teams employing each style is ideal.
The profiles of forwards
Players that sit on the last defender, looking to burst in behind, are more likely to be caught offside than withdrawn forwards who enjoy operating from a deeper position.
Don’t Miss Any Match Stats
ThePuntersPage Final Say
Offside stats are a rare commodity in sports stats, and we’ve given you the tools to use them and make some great predictions from them. Of course, such betting markets are limited so far, but we expect more bookies to catch onto the trend over time.
Offside Stats FAQs
Offside stats represent the number of times a team/player is caught offside.
Offsides per 90 is a ratio used to calculate the number of times a player is caught offside per 90 minutes played. This ratio gives a clear indication of how often a player is flagged offside over a sustained period of time, and is more useful than analysing total offside figures.
If you do find the market at a bookie, the most common markets are over/under bets on the total number of offsides in a match or an individual team's offsides in a match.
Football offsides influence any betting market related to attacking metrics. These include goals, assists, shots or shots on target.
Few bookmakers regularly provide offside markets on matches. One of those is bet365 – a superb bookie for football betting.